THE FRESH FACTOR

Analysis of Horses and Trainers for HK's Seasonal Debut

Now that the Entries (link) for Sunday's Opening Day of racing have been released, I have analyzed the fields to determine which of the entries have done well after a break of 60 days or more, coupled with their respective current trainers. I have also included the Debut race of each horse which is represented as 0 days.

When reviewing the attached reports (Reports 1 & 2 in PDF Format), you will quickly notice which horses have had good success and those which have not shown positive ability when racing fresh.

» REPORT 1 (link) - Trainers & Horses - contains two parts :
The first chart provides my Summary Comments on Horses with good records going fresh AND with Trainers who have demonstrated a better-than-average Strike Rate during for the months of September and October.

The second chart shows a Summary of those entries (horses) which have good strike records when going fresh BUT with trainers who have less-than-average Strike Rates for the months of September and October.

» REPORT 2 (link) - Horses - details all entries showing their Lifetime "Fresh" races and how they performed and whether or not their current trainer is above average, average or below average in training horses that have performed well going fresh.

There is not simply "one" factor that should be relied-on when determining your selections. However, during the early part of the racing season, it would be a mistake not to take into consideration the fresh records of both Trainers and Horses.

Future Blogs (link) will continue to present reports which help to analyze this variable - stay tuned!

UPDATES : Please note that we will be actively using Twitter (link) to send out timely messages about blogs, racing news, changes, and more . . . so be sure to follow us at : hkhorseracing.

Earl